Members Market Outlook Example

Welcome to TheLFB global market trader Quick-View area of the site, this is the starting point for each trading day, or each trading session. The page will quickly update the global trader on the momentum, nuances, and the ebbs and flows, of regional market mechanics, with updates as things break. The information here correlates with TheLFB Technical Training Course detail.

Example Data:

A mix of Live data (Price Feed, Headlines, and Global Market Trends) and Static areas of the page are shown for example purposes. The Live Member page is correlated with all Live data feeding into one review.

Symbol		Bid	Ask

Trader Advantage
This area is the starting point for Members to quickly gauge global market momentum.

Below are the notes to traders for today, covering what the trade team sees as important in the global market, and the impact on the Usd and major pairs

The Calendar will highlight upcoming releases, while the Lots and Targets area will determine the strength of global market momentum.

The 4 Hour Trade Filter section will determine what is required for a potential trade to be able to easily follow through.

Whether it is forex, S&P, oil, or gold, this page will highlight where trader attention need to be focused each day.

Trader Note:

Overnight trade has literally moved nowhere, outside of the earlier reaction in Aud to weak CPI numbers. The last trading week of July has held global risk markets in tight ranges at support and sold commodities lower; yet still has the dollar index is dropping in value. There is complete separation in regard to major currency pair movement, with an every-man-for-themselves mentality regarding valuations, and that will grow now that U.S. Durable Goods Orders missed their mark so badly.

Forex Movers- Eur/Usd has become extremely volatile in the near-term, and by far the noisiest pair out there, however, until 1.3050 is broken the moves may turn out to be a storm in a tea cup. Gbp is bullish, again, but does need to retest support at 1.5530 it would seem, before making the next leg higher. Jpy is losing ground but is sitting at an inflection point that previously failed to take the currency lower. A pull-back on Usd/Jpy to 87.20 would be no surprise.

Forex Shakers- Aud lost all bullish speculative interest in response to weaker than expected CPI numbers overnight, and now comes off the radar. Cad is trying to attract buyers in reaction to interest rate differentials that are building, especially against the Usd. Chf still looks lost in regard to varying trend, momentum, and price action contradictions.

Global Risk and Demand- S/P trade is trading above the 200-day SMA area at 1105, and will signal a positive stance if 1110 is held on a weekly chart close. Crude oil traders are holding support on WTI at 77.00.

Example Data:

Calendar, Lots and Targets

Red Flag Economics:

04:30 EST Gbp Service PMI. Exp 56.6 Prev 56.6
08:15 EST Usd ADP Emp. Exp -31K Prev -84K
10:00 EST Usd ISM Serv. Exp 51.1 Prev 49.8

Lots and Targets:
Global market 4 hour reads (below) have a near-term long Usd outlook, as the market hits a near-term swing point with very mixed momentum reads.

Global Market Trend and Momentum

Example Data:

4 Hour Trend:	Eur/Usd	Gbp/Usd	Aud/Usd	Usd/Cad	Usd/Chf	Usd/Jpy
Momentum:	Overbought	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral

4 Hour Trend:	S&P Futures	Dax Futures	Nikkei Futures	Oil Futures	Gold Futures	Dollar Index
Momentum:	Overbought	Overbought	Overbought	Overbought	Overbought	Oversold

Example Data:

Forex Trade Filter 4 hour chart break-out areas

Euro:
The four hour trend is short. The pair tested support during the Asian session at TheLFB Swing Point. In the near term the pair has broken and held an important 4 Hour chart resistance price point at 1.3900, and now sets up a re-test the 1.4000 area. A break above that point draws in 1.4250, ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Daily Chart: ATR is 135 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is resistance. Favor a straddle.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 1.3990
Short: Hold below 1.3850
Swing Point: 1.3940

Technical Waves:
A Short impulse reached new lows near 1.3850. A bullish reversal is expected.

Cable:
The four hour trend is neutral. The next areas of note are the 1.6050 and 1.6150 4 Hour chart zones, a break of which could set up a test of 1.6250. The main wave count is looking for a long move, ahead of the U.K. interest rate decision on Thursday, that then reverses. Daily Chart: ATR is 160 pips. RSI is just under neutral. SMA is resistance. Favor an oversold bounce.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 1.6070
Short: Hold below 1.5890
Swing Point: 1.5960

Technical Waves:
1.6100 support is broken. A Short impulse wave in process towards 1.5800 if resistance at 1.6100 can hold.

Aussie:
The four hour trend is short. The trade deficit has widened during December as imports surged. The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 3.75% overnight, going against the market expectancy of an increase to 4.0%. The initial drop in price has been contained within the 0.8750 Dec 09 low, ahead of a packed week of red flag Australian releases. Daily Chart: ATR is 115 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is resistance. Favor a long bounce.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 0.8895
Short: Hold below 0.8775
Swing Point: 0.8855

Technical Waves:
A Short impulse structure searching for the low between 0.8750-0.8800. Near-term Long correction expected.

Cad:
The four hour trend is long. The pair found support near the 100-day moving average at 1.0560. The last five trading sessions had been unable to break resistance, with oil and gold market moves supporting the short-cad play. Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is heading towards over-bought. SMA is support. Favor an oversold reversal.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 1.0635
Short: Hold below 1.0515
Swing Point: 1.0595

Technical Waves:
A Long impulse wave has reached a top at 1.0720. A Short correction towards 1.0400 is in process.

Swissy:
The four hour trend is long. The pair recently broke through the 4 hour chart channel that has been in place since September 2009, and in doing so gets the pair into another price channel that started in May 2009. Price has found support near the 200-day moving average where a pin bar was formed around 1.0550. Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is heading towards over-bought. SMA is support. Favor a straddle.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 1.0630
Short: Hold below 1.0510
Swing Point: 1.0565

Technical Waves:
A Long impulse reached a new top around 1.0640. A Short correction expected towards 1.0450.

Yen:
The 4 hour trend is short. The Usd/Jpy pair has been running sidewyas recently, with daily chart moving averages locking the pair in a tight channel. In doing so it has created a strange looking set of near-term charts. The pair moved higher in reaction to threats from the Japanese Finance Ministry that an over-valued Jpy will be addressed if the market does not adjust Usd/Jpy weakness, Daily Chart: ATR is 105 pips. RSI is at the neutral line. SMA is support and resistance. Favor a straddle.

4 Hour Closed Candle
Long: Close above 91.20
Short: Hold below 90.10
Swing Point: 90.50

Technical Waves:
A complex correction from 93.76 top may have completed at 89.12. Bullish bias if 89.12 holds, and if 90.90 is taken out.

Example Data:

Global Market Trade Filter: 4 hour chart break-out areas

Dollar Index
The 4 hour trend is long. The the first test of support that the dollar index has seen in two weeks of trade is underway. The economic calendar is packed full of red flag releases this week, and they are slanted towards the U.S. and Australia, with the G7 meeting capping off the Non-farm Payroll on Friday. The daily chart Simple Moving Average (SMA) areas that were so dramatically taken apart as support on the major currencies last week are slowly starting to come into view again, this time as resistance to any short moves on the Usd. Favor an overbought reversal.

Technical Waves:
A Long impulse reached new highs at 79.50. A bearish trend could already be in process.

S&P Futures
The 4 hour trend is short across the major global equity markets, however, all recently signaled a move higher on their 4 hour Bollinger Band charts, by closing out five solid time-frames above the 50% center line. Gold and oil signaled the same, and held long in overnight trade, again, supporting the long-equity moves. Those set-ups will test the near-term short trends that were put in place throughout January in stocks and commodities. Favor an oversold bounce.

Technical Waves:
A Short impulse wave reached new lows on Friday. Long correction towards 1105-1110 expected.

Crude Oil
The 4 hour trend is short. Oil was recently trading at $77.00 per barrel after containing the selling seen in over the previous week. The next real test comes with price action points around 76.50 and 77.90. Favor a straddle.

Technical Waves:
Five waves of decline from 83.90 is done, since resistance at 74.70 was taken out. Bullish bias towards $78.

Gold Bullion
The 4 hour trend is neutral. Gold Bullion has moved back above $1,110, after the precious metal held 1070 support. Over the last week of trade gold had lost as much as $45, with $30 of that being recouped in Monday trade alone. The next area of resistance is at 1115.

Technical Waves:
Elliot Wave Chart: A recent Short trend completed at 1074. A near-term Long trend in process.

Example Data- Not Real Time